Does the BJP have what it takes to steal a victory?

Posted on May 6, 2009 by Vikas Pota

So, what’s the latest thinking on the Indian elections:

1. Voter turnout has been poor in Mumbai, pundits say this is down to two things: (a) generally, middle class and urban populations don’t vote and (b) abstaining due to the Mumbai terrorist attack of last year.

2. Lower caste commuity in Uttar Pradesh, Mayawati’s back-yard – where she was expected to clean up, it seems are not as enthusiastic as she is about broadbasing the Bahujan Samaj Party by providing upper caste people berths in the party. As a result, voter turnout has been low in some parts of UP.

3. Given Mayawati’s slowdown, people are talking up the possibility of the BJP picking up seats whereas this seemed improbable previously.

4. There’s been a continuous campaign to create a split in the NDA with suggestions that partners like Nitish Kumar in Bihar are going to gravitate towards the third front. In all honesty, he hasn’t made it easy for himself either by being vague in a key TV interview.

5. It seems likely that the BJP will emerge as the single largest party in the Lok Sabha. Whether this guarantees them the numbers required to form a government is opaque at the moment. It all comes down to the level of horsetrading they want to get down to.

India's Obama – The Mayawati Moment? 10 facts about Mayawati

Posted on March 4, 2009 by Vikas Pota

Indian political observers may accuse me of taking this a tad too far, but on some levels I do believe that this moment may the closest we get to, in seeing the Obama effect in India.

You can say what you like about Indian polity, call it dynastic, corrupt, rigged etc, but the truth is that it’s clung onto its democratic traditions to emerge as a shining beacon in a region of failed democracies.

Sure, India is dwarfed by China in terms of international and strategic importance, but the fact that a lady like Mayawati can emerge from nowhere and become a contender for the highest office in a country is praiseworthy and worthy of celebration.

The US took over 200 years for an Obama to emerge; in India, if Mayawati ends up as PM, we’ll have seen the Obama phenomenon – someone from the oppressed class / caste in office – within 62 years of independence!

The comparison ends there.

So, what do we know about Mayawati?

1. She was born in Delhi to parents from the Dalit caste (previously referred to as untouchables) and went on to pursue a career as a teacher.

2. Her potential was spotted by the founder of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and from then onwards, she’s never looked back.

3. The BSP, under her direction, have consistently increased their share of votes across India as she’s tried to broaden their base by inducting candidates from other castes and backgrounds.

4. She’s the Chief Minister of India’s most populous state – Uttar Pradesh (UP) and commands a majority, where most other states are dependent on coalitions with other parties. As a result of her dominance in UP (which returns the largest number of MPs to Delhi), she can be sure of winning the lions share of seats there. Commentators predict that if she gets upward of 40 seats, then its for her to decide what happens in Delhi.

5. In 1995, at the tender age of 39, she become one of India’s youngest Chief Ministers and whilst her tenure was short lived, she came to the fore and registered herself as a future contender, which she’s lived up to becoming.

6. As is common in India, she’s ousted hundreds of police officers, civil servants and the like due to their political allegiances lying with her sworn enemy, the previous Chief Minister – Mulayam Singh Yadav from the Samajwadi Party.

7. In a similar vein, she’s the subject of several court cases related to corruption and general goon behaviour.

8. To say she’s a megalomaniac is putting things lightly; her birthday celebrations are huge media events that her foot-soldiers use to ingratiate themselves. Recently, an engineer was killed after he reportedly refused to pay money demanded by one of her tribe for her birthday celebration fund.

9. Its also claimed that in 2007 – 08, she paid more income tax that India’s richest businessman – Mukesh Ambani! Who say’s politics doesn’t pay?

10. In terms of opportunism, all she’s concerned with is obtaining office. She’s thrown her lot with the BJP and the Congress when its suited her, and I suspect we’ll see more of the same this time around.

Apparently, with a focus on bursting onto the national scene, she’s been taking advice on her image, having English tuition, and socialising with Delhi types on a more regular basis!

As I said, I make the assertion that this is India’s Obama moment, but I’m not sure she’s India’s Obama.

Briefing on Indian Elections

Posted on February 26, 2009 by Vikas Pota

Following from the briefing that we’d organised yesterday evening at the House of Commons on the upcoming Indian elections, our inbox has been swamped with requests for the presentation made by Yashwant Deshmukh – who’s one of India’s top pollsters. Whilst we’re probably more immersed than others in keeping on eye on the machinations of Indian politics, I found the insights provided by the panelists and also some of the audience very logical and agreed with their analysis.

In particular, I felt that Lord Desai, who’s advised several Indian Prime Ministers, and clearly, has the inside track on politics, was exceptional in his comments. Despite the pro-Congress Party perception that people have of him, I felt he was very balanced and gave the Congress as hard a time as the BJP. He narrated a story to me of when he was awarded the Pravasi Bharatiya Sanman Award from Prime Minister Vajpayee and asked why, depite the stinging criticism of the NDA and of the BJP was he being awarded the honour. Vajpayee, in his response, said something to the effect of: “We take heart in the fact that you’re equally critical of the Congress”. 🙂

What Desai explained was that he expected the Congress to make it back and cited examples such as of the confidence that the Congress has shown through the very conservative interim budget a few weeks ago. He said that the lack of throwaway gestures and sops are a clear sign of their thinking. In addition, what I thought was a very personal insight, was his admiration for Sonia Gandhi’s long term strategic thinking – for example, her placement of Naveen Chawla (Chief Election Commissioner) and Pratibha Singh (President) in their current roles to coincide with the probable dates of the election and therefore strengthening her ability to fix the result, if required. I’m lead to believe that such moves are par-for-the-course across the political divide, but are less well thought through or executed.

Yashwant Deshmukh’s clear view was that he forsees a situation in which a minority party like Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party could stake their claim to high office with the support of either principal party. What was interesting was that he termed the upcoming election as a ‘semi-final’ for the main event in 2012, in which he expects the contest to be between Rahul Gandhi and Narendra Modi.

I’ve placed his presentation for on our company website for you to download – www.saffronchase.com – let me have your views. Do you agree with his analysis?

The really interesting thing about the event was that apart from the panelists, there were several individuals in the audience who have been offered seats in the Indian parliament, or are involved in politics in India but make London their base. Such as, a past Mumbai region Organising Secretary for the NSUI; which is the Congress affiliated student body; a eminent businessperson who is regularly consulted by the Samajwadi Party and the Congress on various issues; a business magnate who’s been offered a party position in Delhi, a lawyer with equations with the gen-next of Indian politics etc etc.

In summary, all panelists agreed that in the next election, we’re going to see an overwhelming influence by regional parties, which may result in a minority government that is kept alive with the support of the Congress and will fall within two years.

On the foreign direct investment / commerce front, what was was clear was that there would be no rolling back of policy decisions, but you couldn’t guarantee the fast-tracking of initiatives such as the lifting of the caps in the financial services, retail sector and others. All agreed that they saw such decisions at a standstill for the next few years.

We’re organising a visit for those interested to India at election time to soak up some of the atmosphere by attending mammoth rallies (100,000 people minimum), and to see for ourselves the key issues that candidates face in their constituencies. We received great interest from the audience, please let me know if you’re interested in joining our delegation. We hope to take some UK parliamentarians, businesses, journalists and others to witness the largest democratic exercise conducted on the face of this planet.

Who's going to be the next Indian PM?

Posted on February 1, 2009 by Vikas Pota

With India on the verge of general elections, I thought it may be useful to look into my crystal ball to find out who may become India’s next Prime Minister. In most democracies, elections come down to a couple of major political parties, but, as with everything in India, it’s not as straight forward as that (what a surprise!).

As a result of coalition politics firmly embedded in India, we not only have to keep our eyes on the national parties, but also on regional outfits that can return spectacularly low numbers of MPs to New Delhi but hold the sway of power.

So, who’re the main contenders:

SONIA GANDHI / MANMOHAN SINGH / RAHUL GANDHI
Representing the grand old party of India, the current Prime Minister – Dr Singh – has just had heart by-pass surgery – but hopes lead the next election campaign, seems unlikely to me. There are two other options for the Congress – ‘Madam Sonia’, or her son – Rahul Gandhi – who’s an unknown & untested entity, but given the Congress Party’s adulation for the Gandhi family, I wouldn’t be surprised if either name came to the fore after the election.

India likes nothing more than someone who’s made a sacrifice – think about Buddha, Ashoka, Mahatma Gandhi and other illustrious persons, to which you can add Sonia Gandhi’s name. For she, sacrificed the position of PM last time around (on the issue of her Italian origin) to install Manmohan Singh as PM and win over a new fan base and acceptability.

LK ADVANI
India knows Mr Advani very well. He’s been around for half a century or so and until the last election played an effective no2 to Mr Vajpayee, who’s since bowed out of politics. Being the numero uno, he’s finally the contender, but it seems the Obama effect has resulted in his chances being drastically reduced. A lot of people I speak to all say they want someone younger (Obama effect) to lead the BJP.

With the increasing acceptability of Narendra Modi, it seems the pressure on Mr Advani is that much greater. It’s lucky for him that he’s already been nominated as their Prime Ministerial candidate! I witnessed the tension just a few weeks ago when I attended the Vibrant Gujarat Investors Summit and on the following day, read in the newspapers the furore his success has caused within party ranks. After all, it’s not often that a politican receives the backing of India’s biggest businesses in such a visible manner. At the risk of saying something obvious, I have no doubt that Mr Modi will ascend to the national stage after the next election, however I don’t think he’ll take the post of Home Minister if the BJP win.

MAYAWATI, PRAKASH KARAT, AMAR SINGH, SHARAD PAWAR
In my view, any one of these could determine the next election, if not become the next PM. Mayawati’s increasing reach is unnerving everyone. She’s the Chief Minister for Uttar Pradesh, which returns the largest number of MPs and as she’s ruling, her chances of success are huge.

Prakash Karat’s monumental miscalculation of withdrawing its support to the Congress over the US – India Nucelar Deal has provided Amar Singh’s Samajwadi Party a huge advantage in the run-up to the polls. The Communists haven’t been able to extend their reach outside West Bengal & Kerala, but enjoy huge loyalty in these two states.

The Samajwadi Party lead by Amar Singh, as always, could upset Mayawati’s coronation. You can expect the unexpected when it comes to these two. Amar Singh, after years of hurling abuse at the Congress, decided to jump into bed with them and extend unconditional support to the Congress.

The Maratha vote, lead by Sharad Pawar, who’s NCP is a current coalition partner could also emerge as a victor. A former Congress leader, he split and formed his party focusing on his home state of Maharashtra. With charismatic operators like Praful Patel, I wouldn’t rule him out of the running. Of course, as President of the cricketing board, he’s used to taking on heavy weights in battle.

Elections in any country are interesting to watch. In India, you’re assured a fantastic contest in which a billion people make their way to the polling booths to cast their votes electronically over a six week period. India’s faith in democracy, itself, is worthy of celebration.

As for my crystal ball, it tells me that despite Congress winning the most seats, it see someone like Mayawati at the helm for a couple of years.