World Economic Forum – India derailed.

Such is the faith of people in India that problems, challenges, opportunities, and any successes are often attributed to a divine force – the almighty. I remember a raging argument with my mother when I was a child, in which she basically justified her in-action by citing the same – “if it’s meant to be…”, which I’ve always seen as a cop-out as she avoided taking responsibility for an action.

Well, the reason I mention this is that having participated in the World Economic Forum’s India Summit in Mumbai earlier this week, India’s political & business leadership reminded me of the raging argument between my mother and me. Just that in this case, India’s much celebrated captains of industry became my mum for two days.

The problem is that everyone now recognises that the challenges India faces are possibly too big to overcome. The shine has truly come off. The penny’s dropped and they don’t know what to do. So they’re happy just to bumble on and see what happens (if it’s meant to be…)

Such was the elation of the mid 2000’s, that she was pleased to have been invited to the G20, and other international platforms, it seems that they’ve forgotten that if they desire global recognition, they need to offer solutions that fix problems.

Take, for example, the construction industry which itself will see an investment of a trillion dollars over the next ten years, but where are the skilled tradesman? In a similar fashion, take any profession and you arrive at the same problem.

India’s much talked of demographic dividend stands to turn into the exact opposite if practical solutions are not found. It’s far too easy to say that the private sector needs to play a role by harnessing the opportunity. India’s government needs to follow through by creating a favourable policy environment, else… the risks to her growth are simply too significant to consider.

I’m quite a positive guy, but this Summit knocked the stuffing out of me.

Corruption, a bloated bureaucracy, a ego, all stand in the path of progress. That’s what the India Summit confirmed in my mind.

10 things about the Mumbai blasts

So far, this is what we know:

1. Dadar is a congested area. Nationalist party, Shiv Sena have their HQ there. Dadar station is also a railway hub where people change trains to get home from work.
2. Zaveri Bazaar is a market which is located in South Mumbai, like Opera House area. Lots of people travel in rush hour from there. Zaveri Bazaar also houses many Gujarati businesses.
3. Opera House is a affluent area in South Mumbai. These attacks target everyone. Not just the poor.
4. Today is Kasab’s birthday, the only captured gun-slinging terrorist from the 2008 attacks.
5. Hillary Clinton is expected in India next week. Pakistan’s Foreign Minister is expected by the end of the month also.
6. The two groups – Indian Mujahaddin & Lashkar e Toiba have been fingered. It seems that two members of the former were arrested yesterday in Mumbai.
7. Pakistan’s President & PM must be tense at the moment. Hoping India keep their calm. They’ve expressed their sympathy.
8. Like I said previously, Pakistan doesn’t have a handle on its own security. Left hand doesn’t know what right hand does. Wouldn’t be surprised if this is the work of a sleeper unit that’s now termed as being ‘Indian’.
9. Attacks often give rise to communal tension, esp in Mumbai. Like last time, all communities will stand together, I’m sure. In 2008, Mumbai’s Muslims didn’t even allow for the killed terrorists to be buried in their graveyards!
10. More to follow…

There’s cows on the roads!

Ever since my kids were born, I’ve wanted to take them to India – the land of my ancestors. Partly, as I wanted them to connect at an early age with their heritage, and partly as I think they’ll be better equipped for the future if they start understanding the nuances of India – a country that everyone’s accepted as being central to global prosperity in the future.

In their lifetimes, they’ll see massive change. The centre of gravity will shift from Europe & North America to India & China. Given their obvious link to one of these future superpowers, our purpose was to introduce them to the sights, smells, and joys of our motherland.

So, we took them to Mumbai – home to the Indian film industry, commercial capital of India, and a bustling metropolis that is, arguably, the most outward looking of all Indian cities where their eyes came alight with – not the razzle dazzle of neon lights – but by seeing cows, goats, and pigs sharing the roads with the human race and by witnessing the sheer number of people on the streets of Mumbai.

Although I say it in light jest, it’s an important lesson that they realize that a civilization as ancient as it is, respects & shares with others, and that the concept of private space is (a luxury, and) perhaps, unique to the western hemisphere.

Along with the (rather, costly) saree shopping we had to endure on this visit; on New Years Day, we took the opportunity to visit a community school run by a NGO called Pratham in a Mumbai slum. I’d heard and read a lot about their stellar work, but visiting projects such as the ones we did reminded us that India may be a wonderfully colourful, vibrant, and hip place to be but there’s absolutely no escaping the fact that India is still home to a third of the world’s poor.

Cars, scooters, and rickshaws not only share roads with cows and other animals, you also visibly see the increasingly affluent sharing their immediate vicinity with some of the poorest people on the face of our planet.

My kids visited a crammer class of 20 students aged 7, who all sat cross-legged on the floor in a one room building with a teacher who used a blackboard to coach them on how they could attain a 80% pass rate for an exam, which if they did would provide them with 750 rupee (just over £10) scholarship to study further.

We worked our way through the slum – with open sewers, noisy workshops, and a dhobi ghat, to visit a room that also doubled up as a community library, which had fewer books than, not our local school library, but the books on the shelves in my children’s bedrooms! It may have been woefully inadequately resourced, but what came through was the immense pleasure of the children’s faces from being able to read the few books that they had at their disposal. With every page they turned, you could see their minds working overtime to grasp and understand what the author intended.

Lastly, we visited another home, where 20 children aged 2 – 6, who had never gone to school, were able to say the days of the week, read an early stage book, and respond in English to us.

All of this served to bring to the fore not only that we’re materially better off and have comforts that so many don’t, but the fact that there’s an entire generation that’s young and hungry to succeed. They’re going to take every opportunity that comes their way to improve their lives.

Economic forecasts show that as a result of various factors, primarily due its very young population, almost 25% of the world’s workforce will reside in India, not in 50 years, but in the next 15 years – in our lifetimes!

The basic message that we want our kids to recognise is that they have an inbuilt advantage, which they would be wise to embrace given the strides that India’s going to be making. Their economic well being in London, will in some shape or form, be dependent on how they understand and interact with India.

As parents, my wife & I committed to doing everything at our means to ensure our children run faster than we did, have larger dreams that we had, and in all are able to stand strong, not on their own, but realizing they belong to an increasingly interdependent and connected ecosystem – on in which they understand that their actions can have a major impact on someone else’s prosperity and vice-versa.

Whilst, I’ve focused on the material benefits of a relationship with the Indian subcontinent in this post, I don’t want to leave you with the impression that that’s all India offers for the future. It was Mark Twain who aptly described India as “India is, the cradle of the human race, the birthplace of human speech, the mother of history, the grandmother of legend, and the great grand mother of tradition. Our most valuable and most instructive materials in the history of man are treasured up in India only”, meaning that her ancient traditions, religious practices, philosophical outlook could perhaps address and teach us how to be better people and, just perhaps, answer the mother of all our questions – “what is the meaning of life”.

My daughters are way too young to grasp such issues, but, I hope that as a result of the connection they made in their 2010 Christmas break, they’re able to run that little bit further, climb a bit higher, and dream a bigger dream.

Welcome to the motherland – musings about my book tour

I write this post on the flight back to London after a mammoth visit to India and Singapore to promote my book. Gliding at 30,000 feet, I thought that I should write this before I forget the details I wanted to convey.

THE DELHI DURBAR
The visit started in Delhi, which I’ve enjoyed visiting for many years. I find the people I meet somewhat more relaxed than those in Mumbai, perhaps even more sophisticated in their dealings – all very unsurprising as Delhi is home to the thousands of civil servants, government officials, and parliamentary types – behaviour that is to be expected from an outwardly looking city.

But, this time, there was a marked difference. On the faces of the people I met, there seemed a massive anxiety, which when explored further centred on the Commonwealth Games, which are to be held later this year in the city.

The roads are gridlocked, hotels are overflowing and packed to the rafters, stadia aren’t finished – and on top no one seems to be articulating what the legacy from these games will be. One of my friends swept my observations away by quipping: “don’t worry, we’re a nation of 1.3billion, if required we’ll hand everyone a paintbrush to finish the job in the week preceding the games”.

The event at the Reliance TimeOut bookstore in Gurgaon was great. It afforded me the opportunity to practice my script and prepare for the big event hosted by the British Council the next day.

At the event in the British Council, we had a great line-up of speakers for the panel discussion. I was invited to deliver the keynote address and thereafter moderated the panel discussion, which included some heavyweights like Siddhartha Vardarajan (Strategic Affairs Editor of the Hindu), Saurabh Srivastava (Chairman, Computer Associates, India) and Rajesh Shah (Chairman of Mukand Steel and former President of the CII).

The discussion touched on themes like China, entrepreneurship, the future of family owned businesses, which the panel seemed to relish tackling. Quite a few people commented on the quality of discussion, which I too thought was incredibly good, if not fantastically moderated 🙂

AAMCHI MUMBAI
This was my first visit to Mumbai after the 26/11 Mumbai attacks, and it was brought home to me as a result of both book events – 24th & 25th being hosted at the Taj Mahal hotel – the centrepoint for the attacks.

One of these was on the Terrace of a venue called Chambers, which was written about quite a bit in the aftermath of the attacks, as it was one of the places in the hotel that a lot of lives were lost. Without commenting on the emotions that were running through me, suffice to say that at the end of the evening I had a tear in my eye and a lump in my throat.

The following evening was easier to cope with. The CII hosted a great event which saw that a number of embassies and consulates were represented. More than anything, I invited some friends who had moved to India from the UK, with who it was great to catch up and re-live the good times.

Mumbai’s quite a place. On one hand you have the Dharavi slum – Asia’s largest slum – and on the other you have the best that money can buy. Despite knowing this and having experienced both extremes during my many visits before, I was struck by the same during this stay. Mumbai is in fact not one but many, many cities with several faces to show – all of which became more evident as the evenings progressed (I’ll leave it at that for now :).

Lecturing to some of India’s brightest MBA students (at NMIMS) was as expected – great. To qualify for admission into one of these premier institutions takes a lot, so it was no surprise to see a class packed with phenomenal intellect and intelligence. Their questions, and also the discussion that ensued was eye-opening for me as their command on the subject was terrific.

VIBRANT GUJARAT
The Gujarat Electronics & Software Industry Association (GESIA) invited me to deliver a keynote address in Amdavad to an audience packed with some seriously influential people. The event ran on the lines of the British Council event in Delhi, with the only difference being that the book was released by three Secretary level bureaucrats – all of whom run massive state government departments in Gujarat.

Interestingly, the book launch took place on the 600th anniversary of the foundation of Amdavad City, which resulted in a massive celebratory event on the waterfront, which is being redeveloped in a major way.

One of the criticisms of the book is that neither Kamath nor Ramadorai are entrepreneurs. They were corporate professionals who lead their respective firms to global success. So, one of the questions that was posed to Ravi Saxena, Secretary for IT was whether this was a valid criticism. In his response, he rightly knocked the stuffing out of the question by demonstrating through examples of how some of India’s most successful enterprises are in the public sector run by public servants!

SINGAPORE SLING
The thought of opening an office in China fills me with fear, however it seems Singapore may be a great destination to get started, as it’s on the China trade corridor just as the UK is on the India trade corridor.

I was invited to speak to Aventis Business School, which is part of the New York State University, and the SP Jain School of Management, which is a leading MBA school in that part of the world. Naturally, I had to amend my messages for this visit, but I kept on being probed about the China Vs India theme that emerges in my book.

I have a few friends and relatives who’ve moved to Singapore for work, and used the opportunity to catch up with them. More than anything, what came through was despite the great lifestyle that can be afforded in Singapore, there’s no substitute for a city like London or New York.

MEDIA
One of the objectives was to drum up as much publicity as possible for the book, and I conducted interviews with the following:

Zee Business
Zee News
UNI TV
UNI Bloomberg
Press Trust of India
DNA
Sandesh
The Economic & Trade News
Hindustan Times
HT Cafe
IBN Live
Strait Times
Tabla
Asian Age

All of which, I’m sure, will begin appearing from next week. So keep upto date on www.indiaincthebook.com for the articles as they appear.

Mumbai, still fresh in our hearts

It seems just yesterday when the horrific attacks in Mumbai were beamed into our homes, for that reason to find that we’re a year on comes as a major wake-up call.

In London, just like last year, a number of candle vigils have taken place and more are planned tomorrow, which isn’t really suprising due to the presence of a large diaspora community – who have families and friends in India. Just today, I was reminded that a few people from the UK were actually trapped in the Taj & Oberoi hotels, all which reinforces the global relevance of such mind-numbing acts of violence and insanity.

In preparation for a TV interview, I uncovered the following nuggets, which I thought would be of interest:

  • That the Indian Government has boosted expenditure on national security by 50%. Establishing a new National Investigation Agency to focus on the terrorism threat and increasing Mumbai’s police force by 1,000 to 43,000.
  • The Mumbai attacks also underscored the need for India’s intelligence agencies to work more effectively with foreign counterparts. This was highlighted on Manmohan Singh’s recently concluded US state visit, where Obama announced closer cooperation on counter-terrorism.

Contrary to popular perception, Mumbai’s muslims refused burial rights to the terrorists who were shot, and by doing so sending a clear signal that terrorism has no religion and that this so called, global jihad is nothing but a line spun once too often and thus giving credibility to those who’ve been lobbing grenades across the line of control and showering Indian soldiers with bullets since the mid-90s.

I pay my respects and offer my solidarity to India.

Is Noel Tata down & out of the running?

Not so long ago, the view from Bombay House – especially amongst those who’d been with the TATA group for any length of time – was that the company needed a Tata at the helm after Ratan Tata retires, they’d almost suggest that this is what makes their company so special, and it was such talk that inflated Noel Tata’s hopes of one day succeeding his mega successful relative.

For this reason, I wouldn’t be surprised if Noel was miffed at reading Ratan Tata’s interview in the WSJ today, in which the iconic CEO makes it clear that the company has initiated a global search for the hot seat, and further to this, he’d prefer someone in his 40s – which effectively disqualifies his half-brother from the race.

Ratan Tata makes some great points, such as 65% of its revenues are booked outside India, making them truly a global winner, and that increasingly, their employee base is diverse and international – take for example, the UK where they employ almost 50,000 people – which in turn suggests that the firm requires a top calibre professional CEO with tons of commercial experience who can build on Ratan Tata’s success.

With the TATA’s the key thing to remember is that they, ultimately, always do what’s right. Handing such a treasure to someone just because they happened to be related simply won’t wash in today’s age. That’s why I used to be surprised when old hands at Bombay House use to suggest that Noel had a chance at being No1.

But, as all TATA commentators will tell you, Noel’s strength is simply that he has an influence in what happens through his father in law’s shareholding in the firm. Pallonji Shapoorji Mistry, after all, is no ordinary man – he owns a 18% stake in the juggernaut that generates a revenue over $70bn. So, for this reason, and as much as I’d like a meritocracy to drive this decision, it may be the case that Noel is down today, but you’re warned not to count him out.

You can read the full article here: http://www.livemint.com/2009/11/18142605/Tata-scouts-the-globe-for-succ.html?pg=1

Slumdog Millionaire Shines for India

What a film! I finally got around to watching Slumdog Millionaire last night and have to say that for once, the film exceeded all the hype that’s been thrusted on us since its release.

Quite uncharacteristically for a Gujarati to shower superlatives on someone else, but I have to break tradition and insist that we salute Danny Boyle for his direction, AR Rahman for a beautiful sountrack, and of course, Vikas Swarup for writing the book in the first place.

I can understand the reasons that some people – mainly Indians – are kicking off about the film – it shows India’s shameful poverty like no other film has – and in these times of intoxicating economic growth – I can see why they’d want a better narrative to portray India, but let’s not forget that a third of the world’s poor reside in the motherland.

Not surprisingly, those non-Indians who’ve watched the film – who i’ve spoken with over the past few weeks, have all said that despite the poverty depicted, they’d love to visit India.

Even if Slumdog walks away without winning any Oscars this year, this film will have done more for India and Bollywood than the past two decades of films (since Gandhi), heavy investment for the Incredible India advertising campaigns, her cricketing prowess, and diplomacy of India’s elite foreign service, all bundled together!

I recently interviewed Kishore Lulla, CEO of Eros, which is India’s most successful film production and distribution company, for a book I’m writing on Indian business going global, and it was he, who prophetically said that India’s Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon would come from nowhere – a total suprise at a totally unexpected time. Looks like he may have been right.

Slumdog, at least in my opinion, should surpass the impact of Crouching Tiger, as it speaks volumes not just about the Indian film industry but for modern India as a whole, unlike its Chinese equivalent, which for me demonstrated how far its industry had come along. In the case of Slumdog, its not Danny Boyle, Anil Kapoor, or even Dev Patel that’s on show, the story is simply about India.

Brilliant film, a must see for anyone interested in India.

Will Congress Fall?

The outcry on the streets of Mumbai, the public outrage at the news that the Government may have had prior relevant intelligence on the attachs makes the resignation of Shivraj Paril too little, too late. The Governments of Manmohan Singh and Vilasrao Deshmukh, the Maharashtra Chief Minister, are both on the back foot. In politics, perception is everything and sadly, both these Governments are being seen as soft on terror with nothing more than political speeches and a rearranging of the cabinet chairs.

 

The ever growing calls for a firm Government and a secure India should see the opposition win a vote of no-confidence in parliament before the year end, and a new CM in Maharastra. Nothing else will do if we are to save the markets, tourist industry and faith in India as a safe destination. 

The next 48 hours are crucial. Watch this space.

What's going to happen to the India – Pakistan relationship?

More than any other question I have been asked, the central issue that everyone needs to be concerned about is that of the future of the India – Pakistan relationship.

If the mood of the people in Mumbai – those most affected – is anything to go by, we should expect a huge contingent of soldiers to make their way towards the border and eyeball their Pakistani counterparts whilst the international community goes into overdrive to avoid nuclear meltdown. However, the situation today is different to the last time – when the Indian Parliament was attacked.

Different for the following reasons:

1. The Pakistani Government has been quick off the mark to say the right things that may buy them some time. Last time, they also denied their involvement, but they didn’t give the same sense of urgency and importance as they have this time.

2. They fear the consequences of doing nothing. President Elect Obama has already indicated that he wouldn’t have any problems in standing over Pakistant to make sure it delivers on its promise to clamp down on terrorism. He may have made those comments in the context of Afghanistan, but these comments will also apply to these outrageous incidents.

3. India has succesfully managed to shed the much ingrained view that the fortunes of two were linked – the manifestation of this is that now we hardly hear about ‘India – Pakistan’ in one breath, but instead hear about ‘Ch-India’ or ‘India – China’. The successes of India Inc and the huge bank of goodwill that the country has developed is paying huge dividends today. India’s economic might overpowers that of Pakistan by a factor of mllions today and simply put, it is this realisation that strikes fear at the centre of Pakistani decision making.

For these reasons, I believe we will witness a much required and massive rebalancing of power and influence in the region. If there’s one good thing that these attrocities will have done, then this is it.