Should Obama expect a masala tea party in India?

Posted on November 3, 2010 by Vikas Pota

Given last night’s blow to President Obama in the mid-term elections, where a handful of the much talked about ‘Tea Party’ were elected, it strikes me that his visit elsewhere, other than India this weekend, may have been (more) politically beneficial to his Presidency.

Let me explain:

1. Despite being a minority leader, Indian’s are huge fans of the Clintons. In fact, on a recent visit to the US, the sentiment expressed by several prominent persons of the diaspora pointed to their hidden hope that Hillary may consider ratcheting the pressure on Obama in the remainder of what they felt was his only term in the White House.

2. On bilateral relations, it may surprise you, but India really loves George W. Bush. For it was Dubya’s administration that allowed India to participate in the restricted super club of nuclear nations, despite their not signing important treaties on non-proliferation.

3. The civilian nuclear partnership was heralded as bringing a ‘paradigm shift’ to US – India relations – a true game-changer, if there ever was one!

Given that this is the case, what can Obama achieve:

4. Like Nirupama Rao said in her press conference, don’t expect too much apart from a structured dialogue that’s a continuation of interaction between the two sides. She’s trying to manage expectations, and did so effectively.

5. During the US elections, Obama suffered from rhetoric flourish which is going to bit him on his back side on this visit. India’s self perception as a confident, global player is partly attributed to her prowess in the IT / BPO sector. For Obama to promise to increase taxes for companies who take away jobs from America was a mistake in international terms.

6. America needs Indian IT firms. I don’t wish to teach you to suck eggs, but simply put Indian IT firms make American corporations efficient. Simple. So, why put this at risk. We already know that India’s Opposition Party, the BJP, intend on vocalising their views on this subject during the visit. Thankfully for Obama, they’re simply not a threat to anyone nowadays in the politics of New Delhi.

7. Given all the evidence that India’s on the rise, I don’t think that the Indian’s will treat this visit like they did David Cameron’s. The UK does struggle to make its case to India effectively. Many captains of industry have often said that their focus, which was once on good ol’ Blighty, has switched to other places. In Obama’s case, America remains an important market today, and importantly, in the future. You can be rest assured that none other than Sonia Gandhi and heir apparent – Rahul Gandhi will roll out the red carpet for President Obama, unlike her absence on Cameron’s diary.

My prediction for this visit – apart from policy announcements on issues like defence cooperation, counter-terrorism, pacts to do with economic matters etc, unlike back at home in the US, he needn’t get upset when he’s invited to a tea party, or two.

On the eve of Indian elections… new poll research

Posted on April 14, 2009 by Vikas Pota

Thought you may be interested in the Indian election survey we commissioned.

What it shows:

• So far, the electorate have been treated to a ‘policy-lite’ campaign, with no real debate on substantive issues. Caste and religion remain defining issues in this election.

• Anyone can still make it. It’s all down to the post poll alliances that are struck at the end.

• The Congress & BJP will have an equal share of seats, it’s their coalition allies that will make the essential difference.

• Previous groupings like the UPA (Congress Party + partners) & NDA (BJP + partners) have more or less been disbanded. They remain convenient terms to apply, but mean little in the real sense.

• Regional parties are flexing their muscles by choosing to join together, under banners such as the Third Front or Fourth Front, avoiding grand alliances offered by the Congress or BJP.

Detailed breakdown of projected wins under four main scenarios is here: http://indiabriefingcentre.files.wordpress.com/2009/04/090414-sc-team-cvoter-election-survey2.pdf

Musings from last week…

The Congress withdraw a senior Congress MP over his alleged involvement in the 1984 Sikh riots that occurred after Indira Gandhi was assassinated by her Sikh bodyguards. At a press conference last week, a Sikh journalist threw a shoe at the Home Minister as a sign of protest, which snow-balled into the two MPs withdrawing their candidature and bringing media attention to the Congress Party’s record on communal politics, which was a huge relief for the BJP as this shifted media attention from Varun Gandhi’s “hate speech”, that was being played out in the media in preceding weeks.

Personal attacks from the Congress leadership have intensified. Manmohan Singh (uncharacteristically) and Rahul Gandhi have publically criticised Advani, the BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidate. Excerpts from a press conference below:

“Mr Advani has strength in speech with weakness in action.” – Manmohan Singh on LK Advani

“I would not have been found weeping in the corner, when a mob of hoodlums was destroying the centuries’ old mosque.” – Manmohan Singh on LK Advani when the Babri structure was razed to the ground in 1992.

In obvious reference to the Kandahar plane hijack episode Manmohan Singh said, “The difference between the UPA government and the NDA government is that they released terrorists while we killed nine and captured one alive.”

Referring to Mr Advani’s remarks that he did not know about the release of terrorists and the flight to Kandahar carrying Jaswant Singh, Rahul Gandhi said: “If he is such a strong leader, how come then the home minister did not know something…there are two possibilities. Either he is not telling the truth or his senior leader, Prime Minister Vajpayee, did not trust him”.

Likewise, LK Advani demanded an apology from Sonia Gandhi for her statement that India was in greater danger from people inside than foreign terrorists, which he said was an implied attack on the BJP. Advani said he was shocked about her remarks that “we are in greater danger from people inside than from foreign terrorists entering India”.

He said though Gandhi did not name his party, it “substantially accuses us and the comments were clear”.

On the third front, he said: “The so-called Third and Fourth Fronts were irrelevant as they were opportunists, who had no platform on their own or a common platform. The CPI(M) was trying to cobble a Third Front only to fight its own growing irrelevance.”

Briefing on Indian Elections

Posted on February 26, 2009 by Vikas Pota

Following from the briefing that we’d organised yesterday evening at the House of Commons on the upcoming Indian elections, our inbox has been swamped with requests for the presentation made by Yashwant Deshmukh – who’s one of India’s top pollsters. Whilst we’re probably more immersed than others in keeping on eye on the machinations of Indian politics, I found the insights provided by the panelists and also some of the audience very logical and agreed with their analysis.

In particular, I felt that Lord Desai, who’s advised several Indian Prime Ministers, and clearly, has the inside track on politics, was exceptional in his comments. Despite the pro-Congress Party perception that people have of him, I felt he was very balanced and gave the Congress as hard a time as the BJP. He narrated a story to me of when he was awarded the Pravasi Bharatiya Sanman Award from Prime Minister Vajpayee and asked why, depite the stinging criticism of the NDA and of the BJP was he being awarded the honour. Vajpayee, in his response, said something to the effect of: “We take heart in the fact that you’re equally critical of the Congress”. 🙂

What Desai explained was that he expected the Congress to make it back and cited examples such as of the confidence that the Congress has shown through the very conservative interim budget a few weeks ago. He said that the lack of throwaway gestures and sops are a clear sign of their thinking. In addition, what I thought was a very personal insight, was his admiration for Sonia Gandhi’s long term strategic thinking – for example, her placement of Naveen Chawla (Chief Election Commissioner) and Pratibha Singh (President) in their current roles to coincide with the probable dates of the election and therefore strengthening her ability to fix the result, if required. I’m lead to believe that such moves are par-for-the-course across the political divide, but are less well thought through or executed.

Yashwant Deshmukh’s clear view was that he forsees a situation in which a minority party like Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party could stake their claim to high office with the support of either principal party. What was interesting was that he termed the upcoming election as a ‘semi-final’ for the main event in 2012, in which he expects the contest to be between Rahul Gandhi and Narendra Modi.

I’ve placed his presentation for on our company website for you to download – www.saffronchase.com – let me have your views. Do you agree with his analysis?

The really interesting thing about the event was that apart from the panelists, there were several individuals in the audience who have been offered seats in the Indian parliament, or are involved in politics in India but make London their base. Such as, a past Mumbai region Organising Secretary for the NSUI; which is the Congress affiliated student body; a eminent businessperson who is regularly consulted by the Samajwadi Party and the Congress on various issues; a business magnate who’s been offered a party position in Delhi, a lawyer with equations with the gen-next of Indian politics etc etc.

In summary, all panelists agreed that in the next election, we’re going to see an overwhelming influence by regional parties, which may result in a minority government that is kept alive with the support of the Congress and will fall within two years.

On the foreign direct investment / commerce front, what was was clear was that there would be no rolling back of policy decisions, but you couldn’t guarantee the fast-tracking of initiatives such as the lifting of the caps in the financial services, retail sector and others. All agreed that they saw such decisions at a standstill for the next few years.

We’re organising a visit for those interested to India at election time to soak up some of the atmosphere by attending mammoth rallies (100,000 people minimum), and to see for ourselves the key issues that candidates face in their constituencies. We received great interest from the audience, please let me know if you’re interested in joining our delegation. We hope to take some UK parliamentarians, businesses, journalists and others to witness the largest democratic exercise conducted on the face of this planet.

India this week: Advani, Sonia, Blair, and India Inc.

Posted on November 22, 2008 by Vikas Pota

Quite a week in India as far as the interplay of politics and business are concerned. Let me explain:

LK ADVANI & INDIA INC

With a number of state elections taking place as we speak, and the prospect of a general election within the next six months, LK Advani, Prime Ministerial candidate, brought business leaders together, on Thursday, to advise him on the options available to take control the impact of the financial crisis in India.

It’s been reported that the good and great of Indian commerce advised him to work with the Congress to help India weather the storm, knowing fully well that with elections pending, it was a tough commitment for Mr Advani to make. The BJP have been quick to point out that comments such as those of Mr Chidambaram, equating Mr Advani to John McCain, have made it impossible for the two sides to work together in a bipartisan manner.

SONIA GANDHI – BANK NATIONALISATION IS GOOD

Reacting to the press coverage of Mr Advani meeting the ambassadors of India Inc, UPA Chairman, Sonia Gandhi’s gone out and made remarks of her own that support her mother in-law, Indira Gandhi’s decision to nationalise banks four decades ago.

Sure, India’s prudence and protectionist attitude may shield her from some of the turmoil being witnessed today, but I believe that India stands to gain from a more open economy. I’m not just talking about the burgeoning middle class, but also of the most vunerable sections of society.

TONY BLAIR

Mr Blair’s delivered a speech at the Hindustan Times leadership Summit and and excerpt from his speech struck me as being spot on. He said:

On India’s role, he said, “India has to decide its future path. One thing is for sure, India will demand its rightful place in the councils of the world…no wonder it was the G-20 that met in Washington and will meet in London, not the G-8. A UNSC without India as a permanent member is an anachronism. An IMF or a World Bank without a proper role for India, will no longer do. Across the world’s agenda, India will demand and will receive the position due to one of the world’s major powers.”

But, he cautioned: “Beware one thing: with the power will come the responsibility. All of a sudden, you will find the expectation that, just as you will, in partnership with others, lead the world, so you will be able to solve the problems. People will knock on your door not to give opinions, but to hear answers. It is an exciting prospect but also a daunting one.”