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Dec 20 10

From Russia with love

by Vikas Pota

In the past year, you’ve seen the who’s who of global politics make a bee line to New Delhi. Despite scams, corruption, failure of governance, and all such less desirable faces to India, David Cameron, Barack Obama, Nicholas Sarkozy, Wen Jiabao, and now President Medvedev seem keen to cosy up to a country, which when spoken of is often referred to as a slow elephant in comparison to the Dragon that’s come to symbolise China.

With the global economy facing severe challenges, its understandable that they seek to forge stronger partnerships with a nation that’s averaging GDP growth of 8.5% and with an increasingly young & affluent population. But is this the only reason?

Clearly, no.

The movement towards India is also, if not more so, about geo-politics. It’s about regional balance.

It was said that Cameron’s love for India is really about countering the emphasis the Blair gave to developing relations with China. America similarly after decades of a cool relationship with India warmed up by paving the way for the game-changing civil nuclear agreement, and the French have always been good friends with India, just as the Russians have.

In fact, it comes as no surprise that Medvedev is in India. There are some parallels and reasons to work together. Both have a massive need for infrastructure, which friends suggest, India is more likely to get done because it’s more open to foreign expertise and has lots of cheap labour. The significant differences are that India’s democracy is more developed and Russia has a serious demographic problem. It has some natural resources that India needs, but I’d say that Russia is definitely in a weaker economic position long term. That’s why Medvedev needs to work with India.

On a strategic plane, the India- Russia relationship goes back decades, for it was the Russians who were early to recognise India’s potential, both on the economic, and also on the geopolitical matrix as a counter to China, decades ago. Medvedev will be pushing an open door when in New Delhi.

You don’t need to be a genius to work out that India & China are key to the prosperity of nations like ours, but what’s critical is that the dance between the slow elephant and the fierce dragon doesn’t lead to an all out x-factor type contest where instead of houses being divided as to who’s the more meritorious, countries have to decide who to back for the big time. That’s why, in my opinion, Premier Wen’s sojourn to India was probably the most important visit of the lot.

It matters that China and India work towards resolution on key issues. It matters to the prosperity of future generations, in Russia, and the world over.

Dec 9 10

Corruption in India

by Vikas Pota

There’s absolutely no way getting around this issue. Corruption is a major problem in India, as it is everywhere else. In India, the issue’s been on the front page of its very watchful & critical newspapers for a very long time. In fact, some like Tehelka.com have built a reputation around exposing scams. The sheer fact is that corruption continues, and it seems not much can derail the gravy train in India.

From an international investment perspective, they all know that corruption exists. They all know that people need to be paid off or provided hospitality to. They all know the importance that the business world places in cementing its relationship with Government, so they try to replicate it – rather than take a stand as per their corporate governance rules in their own countries.

Or do they?

Evidence suggests that corruption is as much an issue in the western world as it is in places like India. In well known cases of British firms, the Government has blocked enquiries into trade deals (BAE Systems), been complicit in trying to sway deals by offering generous hospitality (FIFA World Cup bid) etc etc.

In the past when I’ve discussed India’s woes with Indian business leaders, their view is summed up in the following quote “as long as our work is done, why should we care if a margin needs to be paid”. I suspect most western business leaders would disagree with this on the face of it, but privately would concede that they’ve had to somewhere down the line compromise on their ethics.

Given that India has a free and (very) critical press, is a very (colourful) and vibrant democracy, the only hope it has of tackling this scourge, is that of inspired political leadership.

It’s fair game to be critical of Manmohan Singh, the Gandhi’s and the ruling party, as it is about LK Advani and the BJP lead NDA coalition.

What’s the point of being a man of character & integrity as Prime Minister, or having a vibrant democracy, when they keep quite on scams such as those witnessed recently – Commonwealth Games, Adarsh Society, and the massive 2G scam.

One can only conclude with such behaviour that they’re on the take. India needs inspired political leadership.

Who will that be?

Nov 6 10

Obama teaches Britain how to organise a visit to India

by Vikas Pota

Wow. What a visit this is working out to be for Obama. Fresh from his defeat in the mid-term polls, Obama arrived in India on his first visit and on day one announced 20 business deals worth over $10bn, which will create approx 53,000 new jobs in the US.

Contrast that with David Cameron’s first visit a couple of months ago. Anyone remember that?

My Tory friends criticised me for saying openly on the BBC that Cameron ought to follow through from his visit to the US, where he declared that Britain was the junior partner in the special relationship. In India, he might as well continue taking that line when he was going to be there a few weeks later.

As far as I am concerned, when a quarter of the world’s workforce is going to reside in India in the next 15 years, or when a country can claim to have more middle class consumers that the entire population of the US, it’s time has come. The fact that India & China will reclaim their place in global commerce is not a secret. It’s something that we need to get a grip with. In this respect, they’re going to dictate the terms, be the senior partners of any relationship.

Whilst my original point wasn’t meant to be political, I ask those who felt I was speaking an untruth or heaping shame on Cameron to reflect on the substance of Obama’s visit and then really tell me that our Prime Minister & Britain isn’t the junior partner.

Leave a comment on my blog. Let’s have an open discussion.

Nov 3 10

Should Obama expect a masala tea party in India?

by Vikas Pota

Given last night’s blow to President Obama in the mid-term elections, where a handful of the much talked about ‘Tea Party’ were elected, it strikes me that his visit elsewhere, other than India this weekend, may have been (more) politically beneficial to his Presidency.

Let me explain:

1. Despite being a minority leader, Indian’s are huge fans of the Clintons. In fact, on a recent visit to the US, the sentiment expressed by several prominent persons of the diaspora pointed to their hidden hope that Hillary may consider ratcheting the pressure on Obama in the remainder of what they felt was his only term in the White House.

2. On bilateral relations, it may surprise you, but India really loves George W. Bush. For it was Dubya’s administration that allowed India to participate in the restricted super club of nuclear nations, despite their not signing important treaties on non-proliferation.

3. The civilian nuclear partnership was heralded as bringing a ‘paradigm shift’ to US – India relations – a true game-changer, if there ever was one!

Given that this is the case, what can Obama achieve:

4. Like Nirupama Rao said in her press conference, don’t expect too much apart from a structured dialogue that’s a continuation of interaction between the two sides. She’s trying to manage expectations, and did so effectively.

5. During the US elections, Obama suffered from rhetoric flourish which is going to bit him on his back side on this visit. India’s self perception as a confident, global player is partly attributed to her prowess in the IT / BPO sector. For Obama to promise to increase taxes for companies who take away jobs from America was a mistake in international terms.

6. America needs Indian IT firms. I don’t wish to teach you to suck eggs, but simply put Indian IT firms make American corporations efficient. Simple. So, why put this at risk. We already know that India’s Opposition Party, the BJP, intend on vocalising their views on this subject during the visit. Thankfully for Obama, they’re simply not a threat to anyone nowadays in the politics of New Delhi.

7. Given all the evidence that India’s on the rise, I don’t think that the Indian’s will treat this visit like they did David Cameron’s. The UK does struggle to make its case to India effectively. Many captains of industry have often said that their focus, which was once on good ol’ Blighty, has switched to other places. In Obama’s case, America remains an important market today, and importantly, in the future. You can be rest assured that none other than Sonia Gandhi and heir apparent – Rahul Gandhi will roll out the red carpet for President Obama, unlike her absence on Cameron’s diary.

My prediction for this visit – apart from policy announcements on issues like defence cooperation, counter-terrorism, pacts to do with economic matters etc, unlike back at home in the US, he needn’t get upset when he’s invited to a tea party, or two.

Sep 17 10

Delhi’s Commonwealth Games – Will it be “alright on the night?”

by Vikas Pota

Having just visited Beijing, I’m astounded with what they achieved as a result of the Olympics. In the same breath, I’m equally astounded with the manner in which the Indian Government has handled the preparations for the Commonwealth Games, which are due to open in the first week of October.

There’s been public outrage in Delhi with politicians being accused of corrupt practices, bad administration, and ultimately with squandering the great image it’s built up globally on the back of her economic prowess.

I’m told that Delhi still resembles a construction site, with massive traffic problems, and air pollution that’d make you want to be elsewhere, no surprise that some of the world’s biggest athletes, like Usain Bolt, have decided to stay away.

Indians are trying to salvage the situation, but I fear the damage has already been done. Suresh Kalmadi, the main organizer is reported to have said that “it’ll be alright on the night”. But really, is this the attitude to take when you’ve used hundreds of millions to deliver an event that we’ll most probably want to forget. Wouldn’t it have been better just to commit the money to tackling poverty, which blights India so badly?

If you look at this politically, cast your minds to the building of our Millennium Dome, in which Tony Blair and Peter Mandelson came under major criticism for what as described as a ‘white elephant’. Despite the monetary figure being so much lesser than what’s being spent on these Games in Delhi, they nearly lost their jobs.

If political conventions straddled continents, I’m sure Manmohan Singh’s head would ultimately roll, but as we’re taking about India, I can’t think of a more appropriate phrase than that devised by her tourism department for promote India – the Commonwealth Games are taking definitely taking place in“Incredible India’.

Sep 17 10

In China, they stand in straight lines…

by Vikas Pota

A TALE OF TWO HALVES

As written in an earlier post, I was nervous about my trip to China, which is continually portrayed as (almost) a foe to India, where my ancestors hail from.

Honestly, I really didn’t know what to expect and wanted to keep an open mind.

So, when I landed, I was pleasantly surprised. The airport wasn’t located next to a giant slum, which Mumbai’s airport is, the personnel shepherding us to our road transport were courteous and spoke excellent English, the roads weren’t full of potholes, I saw no livestock on the streets, all in all the experience was not dissimilar to most Western airports and countries.

Having settled into the conference I was attending, I realized that I could be almost anywhere in the world. Importantly, I was connected to the net via my Blackberry, had access to Facebook and Twitter – what were all these doomsayers complaining about?

Bolstered by Premier Wen’s opening speech at the Summit, I found an acceptance that China was as much a part of the world as the UK was. Contrary to public perception in our part of the world, he spoke about the challenges that China faces in an open and thoughtful manner and thus laying to rest the notion (at least in my mind) that the Chinese would never speak of their internal challenges openly as they’d be risking a loss of face. I also witnessed a major Chinese business leader – Kai-Fu Lee – trash its education system in public.

Clearly, I felt that people had been egging on this perception that China had a problem with freedom of speech. Or had they?

I was lucky that an old business acquaintance of mine had relocated to Beijing, where I met up with him. Prior to this, I was keen on doing some sightseeing so I got an English speaking guide to take me around the Forbidden Palace and Tiananmen Square, the latter which I was really keen on visiting due to the massacre that took place there. Gently, I probed about the incident, and she point blank refused to talk about it, she said, “we’re not meant to talk about that”.

Was this a one-off?

The reason why, despite my best effort, I saw no slum villages, or any signs of poverty my friend told me was that the Chinese authorities controlled migration. So, you couldn’t just choose to relocate to Beijing, whereas in India, cities like Delhi and Mumbai gain millions of new people looking for jobs on a yearly basis from all over India.

I came to realize that there seemed to be a fairly extensive use of social engineering – for example, the waitresses all looked stunningly pretty, the shopping area I was in only allowed people of a certain class & look into the precinct etc. Such examples, which I cast aside earlier in the visit, all came to the fore – were they simply trying too hard to project a view of China & Chinese culture to the world. If so, they’d do well to remember that given we’re brought up in mature democracies, I’d rather see the real China – warts and all, than their take of a western consumerist society.

On a lighter note, having had an enjoyable dinner, we walked to the taxi rank so I could make my way to the airport, when unexpectedly, it started raining. Nothing strange about that at all, after all Mother Nature does what she does best. Or does she?

Trying to make a point, my friend spun me a story about the Chinese authorities fired chemical rockets (also called cloud-seeding) in the sky to make it rain and snow at their will! They even control the weather! To support his point, he sent the following link as evidence: http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2009/11/02/beijing-snow-man-made-in-china/)

Amused and amazed with the knowledge I had acquired, on my arrival at the airport, I tried articulating what I thought about China. I’d had an incredibly stimulating and thought provoking few days, but then I witnessed some form of staff team meeting taking place in a corner of the terminal, which for me summed up the enormous difficulty of arriving at a judgment about the world’s most populous country.

The striking feature of this meeting was not that it was taking place, but that the executives were stood in a formation of three even lines taking instruction from their boss. They listened attentively, acted in unison, and it seemed they had a collective sense of purpose and direction, where they understood that the sum of the parts exceeded the value of their individual contributions. This to me typifies the difference between China and the rest of the world.

Whilst, I’ve cherry picked some examples to make a point about the dominating part of her bureaucracy, I suppose whether you like China depends on how you view the role of the state. If you’re willing to cast aside her big brother tendencies, you could possibly have a great quality of life in China, like most Chinese people I saw in Beijing were enjoying.

Sep 17 10

Strategists shape the future at WEF Summer Davos in China

by Vikas Pota

Given his advocacy of a flat world, it came as no surprise when Tom Friedman was asked to moderate a panel discussion at the World Economic Forum’s Summer Davos event in China, deliberating what forces may shape our futures.

The assembled panel included Otto Scharmer who teaches at MIT, Kai-Fu Lee, a Chinese entrepreneur, and Dov Siedman, an American CEO – it needs to be said that whilst I hadn’t heard of the latter two, they stole the show as far as I was concerned.

Kai-Fu’s remarks on innovation were clever, but must have gone down like a lead balloon in China. After learning more about the guy, it comes as no surprise that he may have used the platform to score a political point with the Chinese authorities. Since the event, I learnt of his influence in China as a result of his previous roles as Microsoft and Google in China. His following on Twitter clearly shows he’s hot property.

He put forward a view that the next decade or so would be characterized by micro innovation – where entrepreneurs build on other peoples ideas, launch imperfect products, which they quickly refine and add value to. He explained that a Google or Apple come around once in a generation, and in all likelihoods regardless of the hype surrounding China’s emergence, the likelihood of successful innovative products coming from the mainland were almost non-existent.

To raised eyebrows and a growing sense of dismay, he spoke about the deficiencies of the Chinese education system, which he said didn’t allow for ‘out of the box’ thinking, thus holding back breakthroughs and progress that China so craves. Of course, he explained as a result of his own American education, he saw that America was better placed to deliver the next BIG discovery – thi in particular would have hit the nationalist nerve in China.

What he said made absolute sense, but to say it on home-turf in such an open manner must have been part of some plan in his head. Whatever game he’s playing (if any), I’m sure he’s likely to emerge victorious regardless of the type of reaction he received from the assembled Chinese media fraternity in the room that afternoon.

On the other hand, what Dov Siedman said chimed with everyone. He specializes in advising companies on ethics, and one his comments left an indelible mark on me.

He explained that in today’s world, whilst we’re able to exercise our judgment about what’s right or wrong, the clarity that a corporation needs to find should centre on how they’ll scale, not the company, but the values that we cherish the most. By doing so, the probabilities of building a sustainable and successful organization would, he suggests, increase dramatically.

By putting thought leaders like, Friedman, Kai-Fu and Siedman in the mix for a concluding session at a meeting like this, I believe that a strong signal has been transmitted by the WEF, marking a departure from one in which, not bankers, but genuine strategists were able to articulate their visions for what the future holds for us.

Sep 17 10

World Economic Forum’s Annual Summit of the New Champions

by Vikas Pota

For someone who really finds it difficult to pay attention and actively listen to people, it may come as a surprise when I say that I really found the recently concluded World Economic Forum’s ‘Summer Davos’ meeting for Global Growth Companies in Tianjin, China to be thought provoking and stimulating.

Sessions ranged from the technical subjects such as the future of solar energy solutions, to the crystal ball gazing type that the WEF team facilitates extremely well.

For me, the Mentor Sessions with Chief Executives of Anglo American, Infosys, Metro Group, and Nestle were the highlights. The CEO’s provided their views on & experiences of various aspects of the journey that leaders from emerging companies will go through – just like they once did.

It goes without saying that the WEF brought together interesting people and communities to interact, debate and learn from each other, not just as speakers, but attendees. Given that they’ve been fine-tuning their proposition for so long, you can be assured of some high quality networking, which is exactly what I found.

All in all a great few days, well organized, and importantly – an enriching experience.

Sep 12 10

Pratham – 33 million kids taught to read!

by Vikas Pota

What a great gala dinner! Unsurpassed this year, Reita Gadkari, Priyanka Gill and their team pulled out all the stops, despite wariness amongst their core base of donors from the hedge fund / private equity world in London, they probably raised about £500K to expand Pratham’s reach in India.

Like with most such events, its difficult to gauge what the audience reaction to speeches will be, and this was no different. Yes, they were dry and long but importantly, the line-up showed the importance given to Pratham’s agenda to teach kids how to read and write in India’s back & beyond.

Of course, its common for events of this kind to have a sprinkling of star power, but Pratham – obviously not content with a few – wheeled out the biggies from the London scene, some of whom have avoided such events for quite some time.

The basic point being made, even by Suhel Seth, who’s wit struggled slightly on stage (unlike his Twitter feed), was that despite her upward trajectory, India should remain focused on delivering inclusive growth – one which takes almost 40% of its population, considered illiterate, to enjoy the fruits of India’s economic dividends in the same manner as those sitting in their ivory towers in Delhi and Mumbai.

All in all, a great effort, and an enjoyable evening.

Sep 11 10

Nee hau

by Vikas Pota

After several years of academic debate and being asked to comment on the India Vs China question, I’m finally going to China.

The actual occasion is the World Economic Forum’s Summer Davos event for global growth companies in Tianjin, and having looked at the participant list, we’re looking at an impressive set of people who are making strides in becoming market leaders in whatever they do.

Truth be told, I’m a little nervous about going to China – for a variety of reasons ranging from the ridiculous to the sublime – but nevertheless am looking forward to seeing what everyone’s been going on about for the best part of the last decade.
Shall blog more from there. Let’s hope twitter / fb etc all work.