Monthly Archives: July 2010

UK – India Trade & Investment Statistics – July 2010

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I found the following here:

India’s economic and political influence in the world is growing. It has enormous dynamism and potential.

India is critical to HMG’s objectives; from development, regional stability and trade and investment to energy security, climate change, counter terrorism and reform of the global international systems.

The government is committed to a special relationship with India, one that reflects our deep and historic ties and recognises India’s strategic importance.

This is underpinned by strong people-to-people links. Over 1 million people travel between the UK and India every year. Between 1.5m and 2m people of Indian origin live in the UK, the largest ethnic group. They make a significant contribution to the UK economy and enrich British society with their traditions, culture and diversity.

Partners in business
Trade and investment flows between the UK and India are two-way and continue to expand rapidly. The UK is by far the most popular business destination in Europe for Indian companies. 700 out of the 1200 Indian firms in the EU operate from the UK. Tata is the largest single manufacturing company in the UK.

Bilateral trade was £11.5 bn in 2009 and £ 12.6 bn in 2008 (Source: BIS Economics & Statistics Directorate, UK). In 2009, UK exports to India (goods and services)were £ 4.7 bn (£4,687mn) and imports from India were £ 6.8 bn (£6,763mn).

The UK is the largest European investor in India and the fourth largest internationally (after Mauritius, Singapore and the US) with £3.87bn of FDI stock in 2008. Indian FDI stock in the UK stood at £3.43 bn at the end of 2008.

The two biggest acquisitions for India globally involve the UK: Vodafone’s £7.3bn ($11bn) acquisition of Hutchison in 2007 and Tata’s £8bn ($12bn) acquisition of Corus in the same year.

Partners in the Knowledge Economy

Together, the UK and India are leaders in ensuring that knowledge sectors drive inclusive economic growth in the 21st century.

There is an increasingly close partnership across all stages of learning, from support to primary school children, between UK and Indian Universities, to research into the most advanced technologies. UK skills providers and their Indian partners help deliver vocational training to young Indians.

International education is worth over £5bn each year to the UK, part of a total of £28bn generated by the UK’s international education and skills sector. Over 40,000 Indian students enrolled for higher education courses in the UK in 2009, the second largest number after China.

There are over 80 collaborative UK-India programmes leading to UK degrees or awards in India. There are some 5,000 Indians studying for UK degrees in India.

India is one of the British Council’s biggest operations. In 2009-10 British Council administered over 210,000 UK exams in India. These were primarily English language tests and professional qualifications. The Council’s Project English aims to ensure that teachers and students of English have access to materials they need. The Project will train 3000 master teachers of English, and eventually reach 750,000 English teachers in India.

Up to 700 scholarship awards are offered to Indians by UK institutions each year, including 50 FCO-sponsored Chevening scholars. The 2006-11 UK-India Education and Research Initiative (UKIERI) has linked 475 schools and higher education establishments in the UK and India.

UK and India researchers collaborate in a wide range of areas, including key issues of global concern. The Research Councils (RCUK) Office in India and the UK Government Science and Innovation Network promote this work. In 2010, agreements were reached for up to £70m of joint-funded research in key areas including renewable energy, water, food security and health.

Partners in development

The UK works with the Government of India to reduce poverty and meet the Millennium Development Goals. DFID provided £285 million in aid to India in 2009-10, of which 44% went to national government programmes; 41% to the states of Bihar, Orissa and Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal and Andhra Pradesh; and 15% to multilaterals and civil society organisations. DFID graduated from its programme in Andhra Pradesh in 2010.

This partnership has delivered real impact in India. Since 2003, it has put 60 million additional children into school and provided 1 million new classrooms and teachers. Since 2005, it has helped save one life every 30 minutes (17,000 each year). Between 2008-10, it has provided 13 million people with access to improved sanitation.

Partners in security

Both the UK and India have suffered serious terrorist attacks over the years and are among the strongest proponents of international co-operation to counter terrorism and extremism.

The UK and India are strategic partners in this field. Bilateral operational links are expanding and deepening, in particular in the run-up to the 2010 Delhi Commonwealth Games and the 2012 London Olympics. The UK and India are sharing best practice in planning and preparedness in crisis management.

The UK-India defence relationship has never been stronger. The bilateral programme of exercises, exchanges, training courses and high-level visits across all Services continues to accelerate. The defence equipment co-operation is in good shape and includes supply of AW101 helicopters and Hawk Advanced Jet Trainers.

Partners on global issues

The UK strongly supports India’s candidature for a Permanent Seat on the UN Security Council and will continue to work with India to achieve this.

The UK and India are partners in the G20 and worked closely together to promote a global recovery after the 2008-9 financial crisis.

Migration

Migration is an important part of the UK-India relationship. The UK has its largest visa operation in India – with close to 425,000 visa applications made in 2009. The aim of the visa system is to allow the admission of genuine visitors, workers and students, whilst preventing abuse of the UK’s immigration system.

UK and India have a shared priority to prevent irregular migration and associated exploitation, and to effect the timely return of illegal migrants. We are working well together to achieve these objectives

Commonwealth Games

The UK looks forward to celebrating the Commonwealth Games in Delhi in October. The UK will be represented at the highest level by HRH the Prince of Wales.

The UK has full confidence in India’s commitment to deliver safe, secure and successful Games. British and Indian police and security officials are co-operating closely in the run-up to and the hosting of the events.

Last updated: 16 July 2010

Where’s our Trade Minister Mr Cameron?

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I agree with Iain Dale (click here)on the huge ommission by Cameron on appointing a city heavyweight to the vacant International Trade Ministers’ portfolio. Surely, this isn’t the right signal to send when you’re trying to develop a commerce based foreign policy. UKTI, whilst being ably steered by Andrew Cahn, could do with a vocal champion who undertakes the role with as much gusto as Lord Digby Jones, combined with the phenomenal practical experience that Mervyn Davies brought to the role.

In any case, if you’re interested, I’ve done or am doing the following media on Dave’s visit to the motherland:

BBC Radio 5 Live with John Piennar
Hindustan Times
BBC Radio Wales Breakfast Show
Indian Express
BBC Radio 5 Live with Gaby Logan
BBC Asian Network
Reuters
BBC World Service News
Al Jazeera English
BBC Radio 5 Wake Up To Money
BBC Breakfast Business News with Simon Jack
BBC Breakfast News with Sian Williams & Bill Turnbull
BBC News 24

Any new insights you can provide are welcome.

Thanks.

Lockerbie & Bhopal: How UK & India can take on the might of the US, together

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This piece has featured on Reuters: http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate-uk/2010/07/26/bhopal-and-lockerbie-on-the-agenda-for-cameron-and-singh/

With his admission last week that Britain plays second fiddle to America, David Cameron has an opportunity to get one over Barack Obama during his much trumpeted first Prime Ministerial visit to India.

That Britain is keen to forge a more strategic relationship with India is not in question. Who wouldn’t? The India of even ten years ago is a much different place to one that I see every time I visit. Whether we’re talking of the new Delhi airport, the Worli flyover in Mumbai, or the ever increasing number of middle class consumers armed with cash, there’s no doubt that India’s on the rise.

Facts and statistics aside, India’s influence needn’t be solely defined by economics. In real, I believe the biggest influence she can have rests in the realm of global politics.

Under Tony Blair, the British Government lead the charge to bring India to the top table. As cheerleader, Blair did the unthinkable; he changed the way India was talked about by stating his support for a permanent seat at the UN Security Council for India. Immediately, you saw India being invited to G8 meetings, where the world’s richest nations got together to decide the future course of global events. Like a new student in an old school, India observed attentively and said little.

However, as time has progressed; and as events have benefited India, Manmohan Singh is no longer the new student. He has an edge over Obama and Cameron. His experience in dealing with global finance and economics is proving to be a major strength for India. Not only is India at the top table, but it’s bringing its experience to bear by offering solutions to global problems, like it has with the debate around the imposition of a global bank levy.

But, what I believe is that Manmohan Singh has a lot to gain from this visit. Whilst it cannot openly speak of American double standards, it can certainly use this visit to flesh out some arguments that Cameron may wish to take the lead on.

With the media debate and focus on the release of the Lockerbie bomber during Cameron’s first official visit to the U.S., Singh would do well to point out the double standards being applied. He could rightly claim that Pakistan ought to have the same treatment as Libya, after all there’s compelling evidence that both states were complicit in terrorist outrages in Lockerbie and Mumbai. Do Indian lives matter less to America?

In a similar manner, Cameron ought to take the opportunity to raise the burning issue of Bhopal, especially in the light of the U.S. attitude on BP. The EU, in the past two weeks, has offered to fund a complete survey to assess what needs to be done to make the site safe, which Singh seems reluctant to take up. By making the offer during their forthcoming talks, Cameron would neatly be making the point that America cannot be allowed to berate a UK multinational without dealing with Dow Chemicals over Bhopal.

Whilst everyone speaks of the burgeoning trade and investment relationship, the real champion of the enhanced relationship in this coalition government, surprisingly, isn’t the British Business Secretary but the new Foreign Secretary William Hague, who understands that India’s potential lies in her engagement on multilateral political issues.

I’m sure India will receive Cameron in the only way it knows, with warmth, friendship, and mutual admiration, but he needs to keep in mind that he’s going to be judged on substance, and not style – something he’s often criticised of favouring. This visit offers a defining opportunity, the type that comes along once in a while. Let’s hope David Cameron seizes the moment.

Britain must adjust to being the junior partner with India, also

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The following is an article that’s been carried by Reuters, written by me (http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate-uk/2010/07/26/britain-must-adjust-to-new-relationship-with-india/)

Last week, on his first Prime Ministerial visit to the United States, David Cameron conceded that Britain was the “junior partner” in the special relationship. Next week, I fear that at the end of the much anticipated visit to India, he may yet again, have to concede that Britain is the junior partner in this ever increasing important relationship.

I attended an event some years ago in which the then Director General of the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) — Digby Jones — evangelised the need for UK Plc to embrace India, not for nostalgic or historic reasons, but to secure their survival. He explained “in the fullness of time, the past 250 years will be seen as a mere blip, an anomaly, in which India was subjugated. The future belongs to a resurgent India”.

It’s difficult to argue otherwise, just take a look at some of the statistics that stand out:

• Almost 25 percent of the world workforce will reside in India within the next 15 years. The average age of its citizens will be a youthful 29 in 2020, whereas in Western Europe the average stands at 45. India’s demographic profile provides a huge opportunity for her in the next century.

• India has a middle class larger than the entire population of the US — some 300 million residents, armed with a disposable income and looking for new avenues to spend their cash. The spectacular thing is that India’s middle class isn’t confined to its big cities or metros as they refer to them, but to far flung corners of the country in what are second and third tier cities, representing new markets — the Holy Grail as far as some of the world’s biggest fast moving consumer goods companies are concerned.

• Just today, I read a tweet from someone I follow on Twitter about how the Indian Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council has forecast GDP growth at 8.5 percent this year and nine percent next year. Now, compare that with all the talk of Britain having avoided a double dip recession as a result of the growth in our economy at a measly 1.1 percent.

That David Cameron understands the need to forge a stronger relationship with India is not in question. He’s made all the right noises, starting with a pro–India election manifesto culminating in the Queen highlighting her government’s desire to cosy up to the sub-continent in her first speech in the coalition era. He’s packed this visit with an unprecedented number of Cabinet Ministers signalling his intent on developing a wide-ranging cross departmental affair with India.

But the true question on the minds of crystal ball watchers, like me, is to work out whether this visit will fundamentally change the way we work with India or whether it’s just about style, something Cameron’s been accused of frequently.

In either case, in true Indian fashion, Cameron will be welcomed with open arms; and his eagerness to strengthen the bilateral relationship will be warmly reciprocated. Howeve securing the future prosperity of British jobs and industry will be on India’s terms, as the senior partner, unlike those set by the East India company some 250 years ago.

Af-Pak: this is the ONLY game changer in the UK – India relationship

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ADVICE TO DAVID CAMERON FOR HIS FORTHCOMING PRIME MINISTERIAL VISIT TO INDIA

Accompanied with the increasing level of media interest in the Prime Minister’s forthcoming visit to India, it’s heartening that my recent posts on the bilateral relationship have also stirred some interest.

Regardless of the substantive points that result from this visit, it’s obvious that this opportunity will be used to affirm the new Government’s desire to bring a step change to the relationship.

There’s been speculation as to the shape and size of the accompanying delegation, and the only difference from the past, as far as I’m concerned is that David Cameron’s taking almost a third of his Cabinet with him, I assume, to underscore the emphasis on building a wide ranging, cross departmental, relationship. So, I’m lead to believe Messrs Hague, Willets, Cable, Osborne, are definitely on, as are blue chip CEOs like Stuart Rose of M&S.

Such a symbolic act serves to assure Indian counterparts of Team GBs’ seriousness, which I’m sure will be warmly received and all goodwill credited & reciprocated over the term of this parliament.

Apart from the presentational aspects of the visit, which I accept are fairly important, my thinking on the substantive points that may emerge and set the path for an enhanced relationship have also been in development.

In previous posts, I realise that there’s been a far too great an emphasis on the trade & investment relationship. Actually, when I sat down to think about the real game-changers in the relationship during the Blair era, the vast majority came as a result of a change in thinking in our Foreign Office.

So, it’s no surprise that William Hague, during his years in wilderness, has cultivated a fairly strong understanding on India, and that he should realise that the following two aspects are critical to the step-change that the coalition govt aspires to:

DECOUPLE INDIA-PAKISTAN

Not that I see this as too much of a problem, but there is a tendency to link the two neighbours. This hyphenation creates unnecessary tension, as the past ten years clearly demonstrate, India’s charted a very different path to Pakistan, there’s definitely a sense that the world needs to treat both countries on their own merits and not as a hyphenated couple.

The most obvious example of such a change in thinking i.e. one based on merit, is that of the US – India Civil Nuclear Agreement, which broke the mould and provided a much needed step change to the US – India relationship. Despite both India & Pakistan being nuclear armed nations, it was made clear that no such deal could be done with India’s neighbour as a result of her poor proliferation record.

We really don’t need to balance what we do with India in Pakistan. Both countries are separate entities, with their own prospects and challenges. So let’s treat them as such.

The added advantage the Tories have is that they don’t need to be worried about the Pakistani vote bank in constituencies across Britain, which to a degree resulted in Labour’s need to perform a finely balanced act in the way it treated India & Pakistan. It was felt that the impact in Labour seats of any divergence in treatment could have a material impact in local & general elections.

AFGHANISTAN

That India wants what we and the Americans do is not in doubt. A stable Afghanistan is the aim that the international community rightly aspires to. However, the big difference is in approach.

Also, there’s a school of thinking that promotes that India has a limited role and view to offer, which couldn’t be further from the truth. India has a vested interest in the region, and used to share a border with Afghanistan pre 1947, so to argue otherwise shows a shallow understanding of the region.

The difference in approach I refer to is that of engaging the enemy, which in this case is the Taliban… which we seem to favour. For India, this is a total show-stopper. Given that the last time the Taliban got involved in running Afghanistan, India suffered badly.

We’d do well in remembering the hijacking of Indian Airlines flight 184 in 1999 where the Taliban regime provided safe passage to the Pakistani hijackers who took control of the plane, which was forced to land in Kandahar. On the airstrip, the Taliban even moved its well armed fighters near the aircraft in an attempt to prevent Indian Special Forces from storming the aircraft! This flash-point was a massively significant event for India, which played out on national TV for days and is etched permanently in their national psyche. So to ask them to cast it aside as an extreme, sole example shows our total insensitivity.

Furthermore, it transpired in later investigations that one of the Pakistani militants who was released by the Indian authorities in the barter deal for the return of hostages, went onto form a terrorist group called Jaish-e-Muhammed, which received extensive aid from the Taliban and pro – Taliban groups in Pakistan for attacks in India.

To say that the approach to bringing an enduring stability to Afghanistan matters is important, would be a major understatement and show a major disregard to a country that Cameron is trying to forge a “strategic partnership” with.

A “strategic partnership” necessitates the convergence of views on domestic, regional, and global issues, where you try and understand each other’s sensitivities in order to work more effectively to achieve mutual goals. In 2004, Blair ensured there was a convergence of views on foreign policy – by stating our support for India’s seat on the UN Security Council; by calling a spade a spade when it came to condemning Pakistan for supporting cross border terrorism in Kashmir; and finally by ensuring India was invited to G8 meetings, albeit as an observer.

We may have our political pressures in wanting to bring our troops back home, but if this means that we’d have to engage the Taliban in discussions, India’s track record with them and their obvious discomfort need to be taken into consideration, as once we’ve left we’re going to have to rely on regional partners (read: India) in ensuring Afghanistan’s stability.

Prime Minister Cameron needs to work towards assuring India that our approach to Afghanistan and Pakistan would have their interest at heart. Without this, I fear the “strategic partnership” that we’re all looking for remains an aspiration.

If there’s a game-changer, then this is it.

Our future depends on an alternative view… the Hindu view

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I wasn’t brought up to be a culture junkie who enjoys traipsing around galleries, museums, and art shows commenting on the significance of the treasures and sensory delights that may be displayed. I was brought up in a working class environment by loving parents who wanted me to do the best that I could, and it’s this sense that I try to inculcate in my kids, also.

But, as I’ve grown older, my appreciation of all things considered ‘elitist’ by some circles has increased as a result of being exposed to a very different world after I started my business. I’ve had the opportunity to meet and discuss all types of subjects with some fairly serious figures from the arts, business, and politics, some of whom I have forged fairly strong associations with.

The one moment I’d like to recall is a discussion I had with a much respected Jain businessman, who’d called me over to his home one Sunday for a lovely Gujarati breakfast, who I’d helped to organise an event in the House of Commons, and as a result became aware of their significant achievements.

For those unaware, the Institute of Jainology is currently engaged in digitising ancient Jain manuscripts that will be made available to all using the internet. Naturally, all of this work is extremely expensive to do, so I questioned their wisdom in embarking on such an ambitious and resource intensive project.

His response sticks out because it marked a turning point in my thinking. He explained, in brief, that history teaches us that our world will be characterised by the decimation of various civilisations that have come and gone. His understanding on the subject was quite extensive and he went to great detail to identify critical events that contributed to such decline.

Whilst today it seems that what he said was so obvious, at that time my thinking was somewhat uninitiated on such topics. He elaborated that one of the critical aspects that can save civilisations is the preservation and protection of its arts, high culture, language, wisdom materials & traditions, as when these are destroyed, the trickle-down effect of their loss is a major contributory factor in these civilisations being wiped out.

My reason for explaining the above is that earlier this week, I was invited to the Annual Governors Dinner of the Oxford Centre for Hindu Studies (OCHS), which is an institution that was created to promote the further study of Hindu studies at the most acclaimed Oxford University. From what I understand, this is the only such centre of its kind that exists anywhere in the world.

Dixit Joshi, Head of European Equities at Barclays Capital was invited to deliver the keynote address, and he made some fairly sensible points, of which he affirmed:

1. How the centre provides a deeper understanding of the Hindu traditions, which are complex.
2. How the centre provides a connection between Hindu thinking and the challenges we face as a global society.
3. How the centre is helping to strengthen a sense of Hindu identity and a better understanding of what it means to be a Hindu today.

He concluded his speech by stating: “And for every text collected and preserved, for every new insight into our past, and for every new parallel drawn to the present; there will be a stronger foundation and greater relevance for our Hindu traditions.”

“We have an opportunity to ignite a spark in people’s minds. To help the centre reach across our society and light the fires of knowledge in all that it touches. And to build the traditions of our past into the foundations of our future.”

“I believe that we have before us an opportunity to invest not just in the Centre for Hindu Studies but in the quality of thought and debate that will help to shape our future.
And, for me, that’s an investment opportunity too good to turn down.”

Given the importance of the subject and the manner the OCHS has gone on to building itself, it struck me how they’re so massively underfunded, which is surprising given the material strength of Britain’s Hindu community.

To me such a situation definitely points to (i) a lack of confidence in Hindu values, which should be a major concern for all of us, and also (ii) for a need to create a centre that is fit for attracting investment by philanthropists, trusts, and other major benefactors, which must be addressed by the OCHS, which it’s not currently in the best shape to do.

We may be a god fearing, temple going, enterprising community, but if we seek to stem the decline in the practice our traditions and the applicability of our values in the post recession world, then we ought to take the lead from Dixit Joshi and Harish Patel who I salute and give them the credit they deserve in firstly, recognising the need and secondly, for raising the profile of a promising institution like the OCHS.

I’m not here to bat for the OCHS, so rather than argue that we ought to support them for our own selfish interest, I believe that we owe it to humanity to provide a sensible and balanced alternative view on how to tackle some of the biggest challenges humanity faces.

I sincerely believe such institutions can play a pivotal role in doing so, but it’s important that they ask themselves and understand fully whether they’re truly fit & equipped for purpose before embarking on such a journey.

Dear Dave… game-changing ideas on India for the PM

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Dear Dave-bhai,

Further to my last blog-post about the UK – India relationship, I wanted to offer two specific suggestions on how you could create a name for yourself on the UK – India circuit, which I know is what you and the remaining political class would love to do.

Whilst you’ve not announced it yet, we’re all aware that some people jumped the gun by letting it be known that you’re visiting India in July. In preparation, you may want to incorporate the following:

With the UK – India Trade & Investment relationship floundering rather than flourishing, your visit could mark a departure and arrest the decline if you did the following:

DITCH THE HIGH PROFILE CEO DELEGATION ON YOUR FORTHCOMING VISIT

As news worthy as they are, ditch the high profile CEOs that you’re planning to take along with you. What’s the point? They already have operations in India, they have the money to survive, and enjoy the access they so crave.

Instead, why don’t you take the Director’s of 20 SMEs ranging from widget manufacturers to regional retailers. It’s these guys that need the education and improved understanding of the opportunities a country like India provides. They fear the uncertainty of a very complex environment in India, but get the cost advantage of China, which is something your government needs to get right. After all, if you’re after a strategic partnership with India, you need to think a little beyond schmoozing the good & great from UK Plc on this much awaited visit.

EDUCATION, EDUCATION, EDUCATION

There’s no two ways about this, the world marvels in envy at our education system. We’ve known for a very long time that the education sector is as central to our global influence as the Bollywood film industry is to India, so let’s try and regain the lead that’s been stolen from us by the Americans and Australians in India.

We already have examples of success, such as Lancaster University that have set up a joint venture partnership in Delhi to provide accredited courses and degrees to students in India. They predict that in the not too distant future, they’ll have more graduates coming out of the Delhi campus than the mother base in Lancaster!

That’s just one example, but we could look at funding a new wave of research collaboration, educational exchanges at all levels, and perhaps could look at helping India in bridging its skills deficit as a result of our excellence in this field.

We know that India churns out more graduates that the whole of Europe together, but rather than get lost in such statistics, you would do well to understand that the Indian education system, on the whole, is not as great as we’re lead to believe. Why can’t UK centres of excellence enter into partnerships with struggling institutes of technology, science & engineering colleges, business schools etc which exist all over India to assist them actively?

Education could easily be the game-changer that you’re looking for.

Dave – the truth, as unpalatable as this may be to you, is that the previous government brought a paradigm shift to the way India is dealt with, here and in international quarters. However, the opportunity you have is also very clear to me. Put simply, exert some effort in making things happen and you’ll create a legacy that’s enduring.

With my best regards,

Vikas