Briefing on Indian Elections

Posted on February 26, 2009 by Vikas Pota

Following from the briefing that we’d organised yesterday evening at the House of Commons on the upcoming Indian elections, our inbox has been swamped with requests for the presentation made by Yashwant Deshmukh – who’s one of India’s top pollsters. Whilst we’re probably more immersed than others in keeping on eye on the machinations of Indian politics, I found the insights provided by the panelists and also some of the audience very logical and agreed with their analysis.

In particular, I felt that Lord Desai, who’s advised several Indian Prime Ministers, and clearly, has the inside track on politics, was exceptional in his comments. Despite the pro-Congress Party perception that people have of him, I felt he was very balanced and gave the Congress as hard a time as the BJP. He narrated a story to me of when he was awarded the Pravasi Bharatiya Sanman Award from Prime Minister Vajpayee and asked why, depite the stinging criticism of the NDA and of the BJP was he being awarded the honour. Vajpayee, in his response, said something to the effect of: “We take heart in the fact that you’re equally critical of the Congress”. 🙂

What Desai explained was that he expected the Congress to make it back and cited examples such as of the confidence that the Congress has shown through the very conservative interim budget a few weeks ago. He said that the lack of throwaway gestures and sops are a clear sign of their thinking. In addition, what I thought was a very personal insight, was his admiration for Sonia Gandhi’s long term strategic thinking – for example, her placement of Naveen Chawla (Chief Election Commissioner) and Pratibha Singh (President) in their current roles to coincide with the probable dates of the election and therefore strengthening her ability to fix the result, if required. I’m lead to believe that such moves are par-for-the-course across the political divide, but are less well thought through or executed.

Yashwant Deshmukh’s clear view was that he forsees a situation in which a minority party like Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party could stake their claim to high office with the support of either principal party. What was interesting was that he termed the upcoming election as a ‘semi-final’ for the main event in 2012, in which he expects the contest to be between Rahul Gandhi and Narendra Modi.

I’ve placed his presentation for on our company website for you to download – www.saffronchase.com – let me have your views. Do you agree with his analysis?

The really interesting thing about the event was that apart from the panelists, there were several individuals in the audience who have been offered seats in the Indian parliament, or are involved in politics in India but make London their base. Such as, a past Mumbai region Organising Secretary for the NSUI; which is the Congress affiliated student body; a eminent businessperson who is regularly consulted by the Samajwadi Party and the Congress on various issues; a business magnate who’s been offered a party position in Delhi, a lawyer with equations with the gen-next of Indian politics etc etc.

In summary, all panelists agreed that in the next election, we’re going to see an overwhelming influence by regional parties, which may result in a minority government that is kept alive with the support of the Congress and will fall within two years.

On the foreign direct investment / commerce front, what was was clear was that there would be no rolling back of policy decisions, but you couldn’t guarantee the fast-tracking of initiatives such as the lifting of the caps in the financial services, retail sector and others. All agreed that they saw such decisions at a standstill for the next few years.

We’re organising a visit for those interested to India at election time to soak up some of the atmosphere by attending mammoth rallies (100,000 people minimum), and to see for ourselves the key issues that candidates face in their constituencies. We received great interest from the audience, please let me know if you’re interested in joining our delegation. We hope to take some UK parliamentarians, businesses, journalists and others to witness the largest democratic exercise conducted on the face of this planet.

The budget shows democracy is deeply rooted in India

Posted on February 16, 2009 by Vikas Pota

If you wanted an example of the strength of Indian democracy, then today’s interim budget provides that opportunity, as it demonstrated that despite the incumbent government being on its last legs, and faces the very real prospect of being voted out of office, they’ve resisted the urge to announce concessions that may have increased their chances at the ballot box. The Foreign Minister – Pranab Mukherjee went as far as acknowledging that they “didn’t have a mandate to do more”.

Media reports suggest that over a trillion rupees were wiped off the stock market today as investors were hoping that various sops would be provided for key industry sectors to stimulate growth. Given this loss of confidence, I’m surprised that no concrete proposals have been floated to outline what each party would do to revive the economy.

In Britain, I believe that the economy will be the only story at election time, for this reason, I’m intrigued as to why this isn’t the case in India. With the elections so close, doesn’t it make sense to set your stall out on this issue?

With respects to the strength and maturity of Indian democratic values, I hope our politicans show the same depth when it’s our turn to go to the polls.

Faith & Globalisation: Dear Tony…

Posted on February 10, 2009 by Vikas Pota

Dear Tony,

I wanted to thank you for your kind invitation to the multi-faith breakfast meeting held this morning in London. I enjoyed exchanging ideas and hearing about perspectives that were new to me and my way of life.

Running a growing business communications firm in London, opportunities to view things from a faith perspective are few and far between. In actuality, it’s only when things start going wrong that we remember the big man (or woman). I would guess that if you asked, you’d find that a lot of people actually have religious views and believe in the middle path that you espouse, but its also a ‘truism’ that religion remains an intensely private affair for most of us. One where the mention of a ‘God’ makes us cringe with embarrasment.

That’s why my travels to other parts of this world are so fascinating. Take India for example, faith plays a central role for a huge number of people. From temples and mosques in the middle of busy road junctions, to spiritual blessings for every stage of human development, faith informs and determines behaviour and is a very open subject for everyone to observe – how so different to our experiences in Britain!

Your work on using faith (www.faithsacttogether.org) to eradicate global poverty and meet other millenium development goals (MDGs) is praise-worthy. Like you, I agree that if we were to focus our energies, I’m confident that illnesses like Malaria can be wiped off the face of our planet within our lifetimes. My own experience of leading a campaign on the MDGs that targeted the Hindu & Jain communities last summer, shows that despite a decline in attendance of churches and temples, religious identities still play a central role in our daily lives.

However, what I found of most interest was your Foundation’s work on faith & globalisation. Frankly speaking, I don’t think you’ll find many people objecting to your view that we need to inject the global financial services industry with and extra dose of morals and values. In my view, leadership from industry figures is at the heart of this debate. With media hype as it is in advance of the Treasury Select Committee’s face-off with the banking world this week, it’s important that the opportunity is provided for those in leadership positions to reflect on the need for values driven behaviour, at all levels in their organisations. A sensible suggestion was that each bank’s graduate recruitment programme, should encompass a module on ethics and values as part of their induction into these hallowed institutions. Only then, may we witness a shift in behaviour from the future leaders of these organisations.

Bringing the focus back to how religion is viewed as a private matter, later in the day I was invited for a meeting at the House of Lords, where I was reminded that we live in a Christian state in which the Archibishop of Canterbury and other senior Bishops sit in the House of Lords casting their eyes and commenting on Bills going through the second chamber.

It seems odd to me that at one hand we view religion as a private matter and on the other we’re ready to accept the undue and open influence of the Church on the laws of our country. At one time, I would have argued that the Bishops should be removed from the second chamber, but today, I argue the exact opposite – let’s have religious leaders from every faith in the Lords. After all, we both agree that diversity is a strength of this country, let’s follow this up by injecting a multi faith perspective to parliamentary debate which ultimately leads to the formulation of laws that provide the framework for our daily lives.

In summary, I’d like to thank you for the opportunity to meet a wider group of people who share some of my values despite representing different faiths. With the challenging times we live in, I’m confident that some of the teachings handed down through our scriptures are not only relevant but can offer solutions and choices to resolve many of the issues we watch on our news channels on a daily basis.

Yours sincerely,

Vikas Pota

Who's going to be the next Indian PM?

Posted on February 1, 2009 by Vikas Pota

With India on the verge of general elections, I thought it may be useful to look into my crystal ball to find out who may become India’s next Prime Minister. In most democracies, elections come down to a couple of major political parties, but, as with everything in India, it’s not as straight forward as that (what a surprise!).

As a result of coalition politics firmly embedded in India, we not only have to keep our eyes on the national parties, but also on regional outfits that can return spectacularly low numbers of MPs to New Delhi but hold the sway of power.

So, who’re the main contenders:

SONIA GANDHI / MANMOHAN SINGH / RAHUL GANDHI
Representing the grand old party of India, the current Prime Minister – Dr Singh – has just had heart by-pass surgery – but hopes lead the next election campaign, seems unlikely to me. There are two other options for the Congress – ‘Madam Sonia’, or her son – Rahul Gandhi – who’s an unknown & untested entity, but given the Congress Party’s adulation for the Gandhi family, I wouldn’t be surprised if either name came to the fore after the election.

India likes nothing more than someone who’s made a sacrifice – think about Buddha, Ashoka, Mahatma Gandhi and other illustrious persons, to which you can add Sonia Gandhi’s name. For she, sacrificed the position of PM last time around (on the issue of her Italian origin) to install Manmohan Singh as PM and win over a new fan base and acceptability.

LK ADVANI
India knows Mr Advani very well. He’s been around for half a century or so and until the last election played an effective no2 to Mr Vajpayee, who’s since bowed out of politics. Being the numero uno, he’s finally the contender, but it seems the Obama effect has resulted in his chances being drastically reduced. A lot of people I speak to all say they want someone younger (Obama effect) to lead the BJP.

With the increasing acceptability of Narendra Modi, it seems the pressure on Mr Advani is that much greater. It’s lucky for him that he’s already been nominated as their Prime Ministerial candidate! I witnessed the tension just a few weeks ago when I attended the Vibrant Gujarat Investors Summit and on the following day, read in the newspapers the furore his success has caused within party ranks. After all, it’s not often that a politican receives the backing of India’s biggest businesses in such a visible manner. At the risk of saying something obvious, I have no doubt that Mr Modi will ascend to the national stage after the next election, however I don’t think he’ll take the post of Home Minister if the BJP win.

MAYAWATI, PRAKASH KARAT, AMAR SINGH, SHARAD PAWAR
In my view, any one of these could determine the next election, if not become the next PM. Mayawati’s increasing reach is unnerving everyone. She’s the Chief Minister for Uttar Pradesh, which returns the largest number of MPs and as she’s ruling, her chances of success are huge.

Prakash Karat’s monumental miscalculation of withdrawing its support to the Congress over the US – India Nucelar Deal has provided Amar Singh’s Samajwadi Party a huge advantage in the run-up to the polls. The Communists haven’t been able to extend their reach outside West Bengal & Kerala, but enjoy huge loyalty in these two states.

The Samajwadi Party lead by Amar Singh, as always, could upset Mayawati’s coronation. You can expect the unexpected when it comes to these two. Amar Singh, after years of hurling abuse at the Congress, decided to jump into bed with them and extend unconditional support to the Congress.

The Maratha vote, lead by Sharad Pawar, who’s NCP is a current coalition partner could also emerge as a victor. A former Congress leader, he split and formed his party focusing on his home state of Maharashtra. With charismatic operators like Praful Patel, I wouldn’t rule him out of the running. Of course, as President of the cricketing board, he’s used to taking on heavy weights in battle.

Elections in any country are interesting to watch. In India, you’re assured a fantastic contest in which a billion people make their way to the polling booths to cast their votes electronically over a six week period. India’s faith in democracy, itself, is worthy of celebration.

As for my crystal ball, it tells me that despite Congress winning the most seats, it see someone like Mayawati at the helm for a couple of years.